Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Mathematical! The Numbers that Matter

On the surface, Vanguard seems to be an extremely luck-based game where it doesn't matter how you play or think so long as you keep hitting your opponent's vanguard and sack a double crit. And I'm totally not saying that's wrong. This game has a heavy luck aspect to it, but there's also a whole other layer of skill and thought that goes into setting your field up to plan for that eventual final push. And, hey, if you don't sack that double crit, it's always nice to have a backup plan.

What Exactly Are Magic Numbers?

On the most basic level, Magic Numbers are the attack values you want from your columns in order to force the biggest shields from your opponent's hand. Magic numbers are ordinarily calculated based on the power of the Vanguards you expect to face, and can be adjusted on the fly in order to fit the deck you're playing against.

Guard your Anus
Pictured: The number one cause of
table-flipping incidents in Japan.
More than any other game, Vanguard is big on making the power of a unit matter. A difference as small as 1000 power can be the difference between guarding with 10000 and 15000 worth of shield, and it's important to understand that distinction. This theory, which I will call "The 1000 Idea" is why cards like Dragonic Overlord the End seem to dominate the meta in Japan, or why Dark Lord of the Abyss is actually a smarter choice to run over Amon, despite having a less powerful skill.

This, more than anything else, is the aspect of the game that took me the longest to get a grip on in Vanguard, but it's something important to know. For example, a Great Silver Wolf, Garmore is attacking you with its Limit Break, boosted by Little Battler, Tron for a total power of 25000. You've got a Demonic Lord, Dudley Emperor on your Vanguard circle, with a measly 10000 Power. You need to drop 20000 points worth of shield to guard the attack, and that's assuming he doesn't check any triggers! However, if you were riding the Mighty Juggernaut Maximum, with his beefy 11000 base power, you would only need to drop 15000 for a Single Trigger pass, which saves a card in your hand for later use. That measly 1000 power doesn't seem as insignificant now, does it?

This is something that you come to realize the more you play Vanguard. Power matters. However, that doesn't mean your 8000 boosters automatically earn 4 slots in your deck. Rather, you need to compare the magic numbers you need to the units you run in your deck to see what the optimal use of space is for your deck.

Setting Up for Success: Picking the right Units for the Job

The first thing you need to do when considering which magic numbers to hit is consider which units you expect to go up against. For example, at the moment, the most powerful unit you can expect to see in a match is 15000. However, considering that 15000 is caused by a rarely-used unit performing a megablast, we can ignore it. Realistically, the biggest units you'll see will have 11000 power, while most common units will have 10000. Thus, when constructing your deck, you want to be able to hit at least 16000 on any given boosted rear guard attack. (We'll cover unboosted attacks in a second.)

The most important units to consider when looking at magic numbers are your Grade 2s. Why Grade 2, specifically? Because of 2 very important reasons.
            1. They have the very useful Intercept skill, so you'll usually want at least one on the field.
            2. You should be running more of them than you do Grade 3s. Thus, you should see more Grade 2s 
            over the course of a game.

Let's say, for a moment, that you're making a Nova Grappler deck. At the moment, your list looks like this:

Grade 0 (17)
Beast Deity, White Tiger
4 Shining Lady (CRIT)
4 Red Lightning (CRIT)
4 Three Minutes (DRAW)
4 Ring Girl, Clara (HEAL)

Grade 1 (14)
4x Death Army Guy
4x Twin Blader
4x Tough Boy
2x Screamin' and Dancin' Announcer, Shout!

Grade 2 (11)
4x Death Army Lady
3x Magician Girl, Kirara
2x King of Sword
2x Brutal Jack

Grade 3 (8)
4x Asura Kaiser
4x Beast Deity, Azure Dragon

Using the Guidelines I laid out, let's take a look at our Grade 2 units. Death Army Lady and Kirara both have 9000 Power, King of Sword has 10000, and Brutal Jack has 11000. Since we have no 8000 Power Grade 2 units, is it really necessary to run 4 copies of Tough Boy, our 8000 Booster? Even when he boosts the lowest power Grade 2, it comes out to 17000 power, which is 1000 over what we need, especially considering there are no odd 12000 power defensive units (outside of Angel Feather.) Ergo, I don't really need to run 4 copies of Tough Boy, considering that a 7k Unit can do his job boosting just as well, but also provide extra utility.

However, what if Angel Feather are still a problem? That's not a big deal, you can still leave a couple of him in to deal with those odd 12000 units, but we don't need him at 4. To that end, Let's take 2 Tough Boy out and replace them with a pair of Clay Doll Mechanics. Not only do they provide a 7000 boost, but they also unflip a damage when called, which synergizes nicely with our Kiraras and Brutal Jacks. Plus, the 7000 power still allows our King of Swords to hit those odd Angel Feather units if reqired. All we really did was increase the number of tricks our deck can do while doing nothing to the consistency of our grades or columns. We can throw any unit behind our 11k Grade 3 units to hit opposing vanguards, and we have good synergy between our grade 2s and Grade 1s combining to hit that 16000 magic number.

Do note, however, that once BT05 hits stateside in February, 13000 is gonna be the standard for defense, which makes 18000 a good magic number to hit. This will (theoretically) make your Vanilla Grade 2 and Grade 1 units more important, as a Column of those 2 hits 18000 perfectly.

Grade 3s: Why Gigantech Destroyer kicks Manawydan's Ass

This, of course, brings us to the next question. The major difference between units that gain 2000 power when attacking a Vanguard versus units that gain 2000 when boosted. For starters, let's take a look at the rarities of the cards before we even look at the gameplay aspect. Units that gain 2000 when they attack a Vanguard are R, while those that gain it when boosted are C. For having such similar skills, there sure is a discrepancy in rarity across the board. I wonder why that could be?

Consider the following: You will not always have a booster to spare when you call these units to the field. Thus, in those situations, units that boost themselves without a booster will be useful in hitting those pesky 11000 Vanguards, even if it only amounts to a single card (5000 shield) loss for your opponent. In the long run, it's still one more card than they would have lost had you called the unit that requires a booster. Furthermore, calling these self-boosting units allows you to keep more cards in your hand to use to guard your own units, rather than using up another card to allow the Grade 3 you just called to deal some damage.

Additionally, in the long run, it won't matter too much as most of those units' attacks would be directed to the Vanguard, anyway, and an 11000 power rearguard isn't all that common. Usually, players will hold onto extra copies of their "main" 11k Vanguards (do note I said "usually," not "always.") to use as food for Perfect Guards and cycling skills such as Lien and Aermo's.

In short, units that gain the 2000 without need for a booster tend to have more overall value in the early and mid game when it counts, and maintain similar value going into late game. Ergo, it is usually in your best interest to run cards like Gigantech Destroyer over cards like Manawydan.

The Important Numbers, Broken Down by Clan

Even after you build your deck, the way you set up your columns doesn't need to be static. By and large, the boosters you drop will stay on the back rear-guard circles unless you get rid of them yourself (unless you're playing against decks that love retiring units, but that's neither here nor there), so it's important to plan how you want your columns to look from the moment you see your opponent's starting Vanguard. Listed below are every damn clan in the game with the Magic Numbers you need to plan to hit against them. The general rule is to take the base power of the Vanguard, then use increments of 5000 for the numbers. (For example, a 10000 Power Vanguard needs to use 5000 shield to guard an attack of 10000-14000, 10000 Shield to guard from 15000-19000, etc.)

Royal Paladin:

Stardust Trumpeter: 
            A Trumpeter in the Starting Position usually means that the deck is going to be an Alfred Toolbox, meaning that every Grade 3 he'll be running. (Alfred, Palomedes, Soul Saver, Holy Disaster Dragon, etc.) Is 10000 base power. Shoot for 20000 columns if possible.

Drangal:
            Drangal is the start of the oft-overlooked Galahad Ride Chain, one of the only Royal Paladins with 11000 base Power. Against him, you'll need to set up 16000 or 21000 columns. But, really, once set 5 comes out, you won't be seeing much of him anyway.

Bluegal: 
            Bluegal is the biggest indication of a Fang of Light, Garmore deck. Garmore tends to run himself and Palomedes, both of whom are 10k. Prepare columns as you would against Alfred Toolbox.

Wingal Brave: 
            As of set 5, you'll be seeing this little guy a lot. He can mean the deck is either an Alfred Toolbox or a Majesty Lord Blaster deck. MLB clocks in at 12000 base power, so start prepping those 17k columns as soon as you see any Blaster Darks, Star Call Trumpeters, or Majesty Lords.

Oracle Think Tank:

Lozenge Magus: 
            A Lozenge Magus on the starting circle means one of two things: Mocha Beat and Pre-BT07 Soulless. Either way, expect to see a 10000 power unit on the Vanguard Circle. Also bear in mind that some OTT players like running as many as 8 Draw triggers, so try and capitalize on their lack of 10000 power shields.

Godhawk, Ichibiyoshi: 
            This is the only time you should worry about an 11000 power Think Tank Vanguard. A Godhawk at the start of the game means your opponent is running a Tsukuyomi deck. Tsuk has the potential to hit 11000, and you should plan on it happening even if they don't hit the full ride chain. It'll only take a single lucky red-eye soulcharge or the fixing ability of Tsukuyomi's own skill to pump her up from 9 to 11k and completely ruin your field. Always assume she will be at 11000.

Little Witch, Lulu: 
            After BT07, this will be THE starting Vanguard of choice for the soulless build. Just like Lozenge Magus, this should be an indicator that the max the Vanguard will be at is 10000. Bear in mind that Soulless Think Tank loves running as many crits as they can, so bear in mind that they'll have a lot of 10k shields at their disposal.

Battle Sister, Elcair: 
            Indicates the same thing as Lozenge Magus. 10000 Vangaurds.

Shadow Paladin:

Fullbau:
            Probably the only SV for Shadow Paladins you will ever see, considering the other one is the Vanilla Zapbau. When set 4 is out, the highest power units you need to worry about playing against Shadow Paladins are Origin Mage, Ildona and Phantom Blaster Dragon, both of whom only have 10000 power. However, once set 5 is out, most Shadow Paladin players will probably switch to Phantom Blaster Overlord, who is an 11000 at best and a 13000 in the worst case. Hold on to your 8k boosters, mate. You'll need em.

Zapbau:
            Same as Fullbau, but don't expect to see this guy as much because Fullbau's potential advantage is better than a Vanilla anyday.


Angel Feather:

Thermometer Angel, Sunny Smile Angel, and Hope Child, Turiel: 
            Any of these 3 starters will mean you will probably end up facing down Circular Saw, Kiriel or Chief Nurse, Shamshiel at some point during the fight. Both of these lovely ladies are 10000 power, so plan accordingly. (Important to note: Both Shamshiel and The Phoenix, Calamity Flame will become 12000 power as soon as a card is placed in the damage zone through any means, including guarding with Battle Cupid, Nociel. Make SURE to keep this in mind if you are going against either of those two cards,)

Miracle Feather Nurse:
            The first link in Angel Feather's ride chain is a dead giveaway that you'll be seeing Cosmo Healer, Ergodiel at some point down the line. Ergodiel has the potential to be 11000, so long as her grade 2 link is in the soul. Don't take a chance and shoot for 16k columns asap.

Gold Paladin:

Crimson Lion Cub, Kyrph and Spring Breeze Messenger: 
            Kryph and Spring Breeze Messenger usually signal that they are playing Garmore/Pellinore/Ezel. All of these vanguards are 10k, so 15k-20k columns are your target numbers.
Black Dragon Whelp, Vortimer:
            This guy signals yet another one of those annoying 11k ride chains. Plan to set up 16k-21k columns in the early game. This can change back to 15k-20k columns if they miss their grade 2 Vortimer, since SDD will lose the +1000 power and GP has no way to soul fix themselves.


Kagero:

Lizard Soldier, Conroe: 
            This guy can be the herald for either Lawkeeper or Dragonic Overlord the End. If this is any time after set 5 is out, assume DOTE is coming and prepare 18k lines, otherwise, plan for Lawkeeper, who is only a measly 10000 power unit.

Amber Dragon "Dawn": 
            If you see this guy, it means that your opponent will probably be running Amber Dragon "Eclipse" as their main Grade 3. Like many ride chain units, he has the potential to be 11000, so be sure to plan your lines accordingly.

Lizard Runner, Undeux: 
            While I wouldn't normally go out of my way to mention the Vanilla, Undeux is a near-perfect way of telling if your opponent is playing a Kagero trial deck. In this case, they will probably ride Dragonic Overlord as their main vanguard, so prep your lines for 11k.


Tachikaze:

Dragon Egg: 
            The main units you'll be seeing when Dragon Egg is the starting Vanguard; Tyrant Deathrex, Ravenous Dragon Gigarex, and Chaos Dragon Dinochaos, are all 10000 power. You could also see people running Destruction Dragon, Dark Rex after BT08 is out, but he's only 10k as well.

Military Dragon, Raptor Soldier: 
            This guy indicates that Military Dragon, Raptor Colonel is coming, and that guy can hit 11000 easy. However, unlike Tsukuyomi, Raptor colonel has no way of getting his Grade 2 into the soul in case of a missed ride, so feel free to make columns to hit 10k if they don't get Raptor Captain on that VG circle.

Baby Ptera: 
            While this unit indicates nothing about the Grade 3s that Dragon Egg does not, it should also be a signal that your opponent probably doesn't know the optimal way to run Tachikaze. Teach them that Dragon Egg is the best Generic Vanguard by pounding their 10000 power units in.


Murakumo:

Stealth Beast, Evil Ferret: 
            Currently the only First Vanguard available to Murakumo, seeing this guy tells you jackall about what Grade 3 your opponent favors. Assume they're running Mandala Lord/ZANBAKU like any good Murakumo player would and line up those 11k columns.


Narukami:

Spark Kid Dragoon and Lizard Soldier, Saishin: 
            Both of these guys are decent choices for a Narukami build, so expect to see Dragonic Kaiser, Vermillion when either of these guys show their ugly mugs on that Vangaurd Circle. Make 11k columns and never look back.

Seal Priest, Koukou: 
            This guy means that your opponent is probably running the new BT08 Narukami, as that's the only deck where his skill would be even REMOTELY useful. Expect to see Divine Seal Dragon, Dungaree on that Vanguard circle. Plan for 11k, just like with any other Narukami build.


Nubatama:

Stealth Beast, Hagakure: 
            If your opponent leads with this, they are an idiot. The second you see a Nubatama unit, plan for whatever Vanguard you are likely to see based on the clan they hybridize with (Usually an 11k line). Voidmaster himself is only 9k defensively, so you can steamroll him without much thought.


Nova Grappler:

Battleraizer: 
            After EB04 comes out, this'll be the vanguard of choice for the Perfect Raizer deck. Like many Nova Grappler units, he's got a 11000 defensive power. But, bear in mind that he'll only be 9000 if his user controls no other Raizer units.

Turboraizer: 
            Honestly, I don't know why anyone would lead with Turboraizer, but he's an option. Just plan for 11k like you would with most Grappler decks.

Beast Deity, White Tiger: 
            This means your opponent probable has a Kaiser/Azure dragon build. Both of them are 11k, and both work well on the Vanguard circle.

Blaujunger: 
            The first link in the Stern Blaukruger line who can have a power of...you guessed it, 11000! Nova Grapplers have fantastic defenses, so it's always best to just line up 11k against them no matter what.


Dimension Police:

Enigman Flow: 
            Flow, Ripple, Wave, Storm. A Ride chain that adds up to a potential 11000 power. Line up those 16k columns and hit them until they break.

Dimensional Robo, Goyusha: 
            You'll be seeing this guy a lot after BT08 comes out. He provides the fuel needed for the Great Daiyusha deck to run the way it needs to. Great Daiyusha is like Dragonic Overlord the End in that he can be either 11k or 13k. Still, prepare for a 13k power defense, especially because they can always just use Goyusha to shove a Super Daiyusha into the soul to make up for any missed rides.

Soldier of Destiny, Dai: 
            This guy tells you that your opponent probably isn't running Zeal, Great Daiyusha, or Enigman Storm. Any unit not named Zeal, Storm, or Great Daiyusha has 10000 power or less. Aim for that number.

Larva Beast, Zeal: 
            Like Enigman Storm, Zeal gains 1000 power if his previous grade is in the soul, putting him at 11000. If you see a Zeal on the VC, plan to hit dem 11k columns.


Dark Irregulars:

Devil in Shadow, Greedy Hand, and Vermillion Gatekeeper: 
            Unlike most clans, the starting Vanguard for a Dark Irregulars deck is based on preference. Aim for 11k due to Dark Lord of the Abyss existing.


Pale Moon:

Hades Ringmaster, Innocent Magician, and Girl Who Crossed the Gap: 
            Like Dark Irregulars, Pale Moon don't need a specific starting Vanguard for any of their main Grade 3's. For the most part, you want to set up basic 15-20k lines against a Pale Moon player, though take note if they start soulcharging a crapton of cards. That's a big indicator that the 11k Mistress Hurricane will be making an appearance.


Spike Brothers:

Mecha Trainer and Smart Leader, Dark Bringer: 
            Dark Zone clans seem to have some kind of theme going on here, huh? Both of the main Spike Brothers units (Seifried and Dudley Emperor) are both 10000 power, and they will want to ride those at some point during the game. Bear in mind, some Spike Brothers players (myself included) will ride 11k Grade 3's like Juggernaut Maximum or Sky Diver to take advantage of their 11k power while they bide their time for a big push. Play it safe and set up 16/21k columns if you can.


Megacolony:

Madame Mirage and Megacolony Battler C:
          These guys can indicate any number of Megacolony Grade 3's. Usually, though, if people play Megacolony, they'll probably have a Martial Arts Mutant, Master Beetle (I assume), who is an 11000 Vanguard. Madame Mirage gets a mention here because she's my Starting Vanguard of choice for my Megacolony deck.

Machining Worker Ant:  
            This guy tells you that Machining Stag Beetle is coming, and that guy's only got 10000 power. Line up those 15k columns and take some swings, kid.

Larva Phantom, Giraffa:
            Hey, look, a ride chain! You know what that means! He's got the potential to be 11000! You know the drill by now, I'm sure.


Neo Nectar:

Shield Seed Squire:
            Shield Seed Squire tells you jack shit about their main vanguard, since it offers support to the Gene Series, which function better as support units. More than likely, though, they'll be using Maiden of Trailing Rose, who has 11000 base power.

Arboros Dragon, Ratoon:
            As with most chains, there's the potential for 11000 here.

Turnip Musketeer, Kira:
            Kira can be used as the Starter for a Trailing Rose deck, as well. However, if you see an abundance of other Musketeer units, you can safely assume the main Vanguard will be White Lily Musketeer, Cecelia, who only has 10000 power.


Great Nature:

Acorn Master, Blackboard Ohm, and Flask Marmoset:
            Great Nature has one 11000 power unit, and it won't use any of these guys as a starter. Shoot for 10000.

Schoolyard Prodigy, Locks:
            Ride Chain. 11000. Can we tell that I'm running out of creative ways to say the same shit over and over again?



Granblue:

Guiding Zombie, Captain Night Kid, and Skeleton Assault Troops Captain:
            Like the Dark Zone clans, Granblue can run any starter for any G3, despite Night Kid being the obvious choice for the starter. Most players will run the 10000 power Cocytus, but if you see Deadly Nightmare or Deadly Spirit, brace yourself to face down a potential deadly Swordmaster, who boasts a base 11000.


Bermuda Triangle:

Bermuda Triangle Cadet, Wedell and Bermuda Triangle Cadet, Shizuka:
            You'll be seeing Wedell most often, but both of these units can be used for Pacifica, Raindear, or Lena builds. All 3 of those units have 10000 power.

Bermuda Triangle Cadet, Riviere:
            Say it with me now!
RIDE CHAIN!
11000!
            Thank you and good night.


Aqua Force:

Officer Cadet, Erik and Aqua Breath Dracokid:
            Either of these two can mean any Aqua Force G3 is coming. Blue Storm Dragon, Maelstrom is a big threat, obviously, so aim to hit 11k with your columns.

In closing:

Knowing your magic numbers and which ones you can easily hit are a cornerstone of playing Vanguard effectively and should always be something you should consider during every stage of the game.

If there was anything you didn't get or want clarification on, feel free to post in the comments below or contact myself or Wallace on reddit. (MoaiTheGreat and DaRootBear, respectively.)

As always, this is Stephen Stills of Team Sex Bob-Omb wishing you happy fighting and hoping that the odds will be ever in your favor!

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